Research Archive
Google’s AI Capex Is Being Measured Against the Wrong Revenue Line
We attended Google Cloud Next this week, sat through the key sessions, and spent time with management, partners, customers, and the broader ecosystem. What follows is our framework for evaluating Google’s business as a whole through the lens of its current AI capital cycle. The market’s debate around Google has settled around a question that…
Google’s TPU Strategy Offers a Clearer View of the Next AI Bottleneck
Why Google’s New TPU Strategy Carries More Strategic Weight Than a Routine Silicon Update This note is not intended to be a chip-versus-chip architectural comparison, nor is it an attempt to rank Google’s latest TPU designs against competing silicon. That is a different exercise, and in many ways a less useful one at this stage.…
Foundry Economics in the AI Age
A fresh perspective is needed on foundry economics at the leading edge. For years, the industry lacked a clear cost-per-transistor framework, even as the economic foundation of Moore’s Law was becoming less durable. That framework held through N3E. It no longer holds at N2 and A16, and the evidence is now strong enough to reframe…
Neoclouds and the Three Business Models
Neoclouds sit at the center of the AI infrastructure durability debate because they are increasingly the external channel through which hyperscalers secure additional power and compute to convert demand into revenue. CoreWeave ended 2025 with $66.8 billion in contracted backlog. Nebius signed a deal with Meta worth up to $27 billion. IREN landed a $9.7…
In the Era of AI, Hardware Still Matters. Apple Just Appointed a CEO Who Knows It.
Apple announced this afternoon that Tim Cook will step down as CEO on September 1, 2026, with John Ternus taking over and Johny Srouji being elevated to Chief Hardware Officer effective immediately. The transition was widely expected, but not until 2027. Apple moved it up, and the reason why tells you a lot about where…
Liquid Cooling: The Thermal Prerequisite for AI Infrastructure Scale
Prerequisite: 800 VDC: The Inflection Point Reshaping Datacenter Power and AI Infrastructure (March 2026). This report builds directly on that analysis and assumes familiarity with the power architecture transition it describes. 800 VDC: The Inflection Point Reshaping Datacenter Power and AI Infrastructure BEN BAJARIN · MAR 31 Read full story The Thesis Our view…