XPO
Conventional wisdom says CPO wins by default as next-gen speeds increase power consumption (SerDes and DSP) and heat dissipation. And CPO overcomes this by replacing the long electrical trace with optics.
But what if the current pluggable roadmap can be extended to deal with the power problem? XPO keeps optics pluggable and solves the thermal envelope with liquid cooling. We’re already liquid cooling everything else, why not the transceiver?
Some hyperscalers might prefer this route for another generation, as it preserves everything the industry already knows how to do. Failed transceiver? Swap it. Telemetry? Use existing tools.
Of course, this makes sense if you’re already in the pluggable supply chain. Does it resonate with customers? Microsoft is part of the XPO MSA, so I’d say it at least resonates with Azure folks.
Speaking of a modular ecosystem, I didn’t know about CPX, or as Vik called it, “socketed CPO”. Optical engine next to the switch silicon (the CPO efficiency win) but swappable like a CPU socket (modularity/supply chain diversity). Of course, trade-offs. Rather just get one fully integrated system (usually better codesign/optimization and one “throat to choke”). But then you’re even more locked into an existing CPO vendor, likely Broadcom/Nvidia. What matters more to the customer?