Research Archive
Copper to Fiber: The Connectivity Inflection in AI Infrastructure
Key thesis: Connectivity is becoming the binding constraint in AI infrastructure. This will only compound with inference at scale. The transition from copper to optical interconnects is structural and the braoder market is mispricing the secular growth embedded in this shift. The Thesis As GPU clusters scale toward millions of accelerators, the physical medium linking…
Anthropic and the Intelligence Utility Thesis
Anthropic just raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation and that got most of the headlines, though the more telling figure is the $14 billion current annualized revenue run-rate, achieved less than three years after the company booked its first dollar. Salesforce required 16 years to reach $14 billion in annual revenue. Anthropic has…
Who is Safe in SaaS? The Lens Via our Data Moat Scorecard
There is a physical infrastructure dimension to the AI and software story that the market-level debate entirely overlooks. In conversations we had with Michael Dell, and other Dell executives last summer, a thesis emerged that we believe will reshape how enterprises interact with software over the next three to five years. Michael Dell’s perspective is…
Memory’s $200B Inflection
The memory semiconductor industry went from roughly $85–90 billion in revenue at its 2023 trough to a trajectory that reaches $800–850 billion by 2027. That is roughly a 9× increase in four years. No segment of the semiconductor industry has ever grown this fast at this scale. The numbers forecasted, at approximately $550–570 billion in…
The AWS Acceleration Thesis: Why Amazon’s Cloud Business May Be Entering Its Most Consequential Growth Phase
The market’s reaction to Amazon’s Q4 results tells you everything about where sentiment sits today. The stock is down roughly 20% from its pre-earnings level near $239, having dropped 8% on the earnings release alone despite AWS posting its fastest growth in 13 quarters. The $200 billion capex guide, which came in $55 billion above…
The AI Infrastructure Buildout: A Comprehensive Framework for the Datacenter and Power Cycle
We are in the early stages of one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in modern history. The construction of AI-scale computing infrastructure is reshaping the datacenter, power generation, and labor markets simultaneously and there is no sign demand is slowing. This is reflected in signed leases, committed capital expenditure, and operational facilities that are only…