Research Archive

March 5, 2025 / Austin Lyons

Nvidia 4Q25 Earnings

Nvidia’s 2025 earnings call was more revealing than it seemed. Is cost-per-token now the key battleground for AI infrastructure? Why is Nvidia pushing Ethernet, and what does that mean for Infiniband? What happens to aging GPUs? We’ll also explore Nvidia’s positioning against AI ASICs, revenue concentration risks, and whether AMD’s modularity can still be a…

February 24, 2025 / Austin Lyons

DeepSeek MoE & V2

We previously looked at DeepSeek’s reasoning model R1 and distilled variants. I started with the reasoning model because it could upend OpenAI’s business model, which seems to be playing out: Source Why keep reasoning proprietary after DeepSeek’s open weights R1? Yet a lot of investors freaked out because of the V3 paper. So I set…

February 18, 2025 / Austin Lyons

AMD’s AI Accelerator Business: Puts and Takes

AMD’s 60% CAGR guidance for the AI accelerator TAM is something of a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reinforces confidence in the long-term expansion of the AI market. On the other, it implicitly suggests that AMD’s Instinct growth will track similarly. AMD recently decided to stop breaking out Instinct revenue, suggesting they don’t want…

February 10, 2025 / Austin Lyons

Reasoning Models and DeepSeek, Semis Implications

Much ink has already been spilled about DeepSeek, yet the conversation tends to skew either highly technical or completely surface-level. This research report delivers an accessible yet technically grounded analysis of the DeepSeek R1 paper, highlighting its implications for the semiconductor industry. Let’s start with context, and then we’ll unpack key paragraphs from the paper.…

February 3, 2025 / Austin Lyons

DeepSeek Pulls Forward Copilot+ PC adoption

What DeepSeek means for Microsoft Copilot+ PCs, Qualcomm & Arm, Copilot+ Cloud cannibalization The trajectory of generative AI in consumer devices has always been a matter of when, not if. DeepSeek’s distilled R1 models suggest on-device AI is coming sooner than anticipated. I’ve written extensively about the benefits of multimodal LLMs for mobile and hands-free…

June 26, 2024 / Ben Bajarin

Apple’s Transistor Budget

Apple’s M-series chips have revolutionized the Mac lineup, bringing a laser focus on performance and efficiency to the company’s laptops (portables), desktops, workstations, and even now cloud silicon. Thanks to the hard work of those dissecting Apple silicon X-ray images and highlighting blocks on the SoC, we can take a closer look at how Apple…

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